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The 2015 edition of the Global Risks report completes a decade of highlighting the most significant long-term risks worldwide, drawing on the perspectives of experts and global decision-makers.
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Road HaulageFreight transported by road and rail in the EU remain below pre-crisis levels, if measured in tonne-kilometres of goods moved, reflecting continuous weak domestic demand. Rail freight volume in China shows increasing pace of slowdown and declined to 6% above pre-crisis levels, possibly suggesting weakening of the growth.
Global value of over 2 Trillion dollars. Source: ITF Sea FreightTotal external trade by sea grows both in the EU-28 and the United States, recovering to pre-crisis levels (-1%) in the former, measured in tonnes of good carried
Total exports transported by sea reach 28% and 22% above pre-crisis peak in the EU-28 and the United States respectively while imports stagnate below pre-crisis levels (EU -9%; USA -26%) Global value of 54 billion dollars. Source: ITF |
Container transportGlobal TEU volumes increased by 4% in 2014 to 135.4 million TEUs, the Port of Rotterdam Authority reports.
Inter‐continental trade rose by 3.4%, while intra‐regional volumes increased by 5.4% to 30.4 million TEUs. 2014 TEU volumes carried to and from Europe (including all countries bordering the Mediterranean) and between European countries increased by 5.4% to 46.9 million TEUs, according to Container Trades Statistics (CTS). Imports grew faster than exports: by 5.7% and 4.5%, respectively, while regional trade (excluding feeder boxes) was 7.3% higher. Exports from Europe increased on all routes, except for Latin America. Trade to North America has benefited from the depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar, leading to a growth of 9.6%. Trade to the Middle East/ISC also rose by 9.1%. Exports to the Far East increased by 1.3%. Containerised imports into Europe were higher, this particularly due to a high 7.4% rise of Far East imports and a significant trade increase with the Middle East/ISC. The containerised imports from the US to Europe declined by 1.2%. Container Trades Statistics cover overall inter‐continental deep sea routes and around 85% of the worldwide full container trade, and do not include feeder containers. Source: Clarksons |
Air freightTotal external trade by air, in tonnes of good transported, recovers to 2% above pre-crisis peak for the first time since the second quarter of 2012, according to our seasonally adjusted preliminary data
Source: ITF |
The Impact of Mega-Ships
Ever bigger container ships inspire awe and fascination, and are one of the hottest topics in maritime transport says ITF. They are also a headache for ports and terminals – mainly because of their vast size. Although economies of scale allow vessel costs per volume transported to decrease with bigger ships, the on-land costs of handling those volumes increase. Together, these two costs determine the total costs for the transport chain. There are also several supply chain costs and risks related to mega-ships. There are adaptations needed to infrastructure and equipment: the ships are longer, wider and deeper which has consequences for cranes, quays, access channels and all that. Mega-ships stay on average 20% longer in ports – quite an achievement for most ports as this requires massive efforts to accommodate these longer-stay guests. The higher risks associated with mega-ships are linked to difficulties in insuring and salvaging in case of accidents. Furthermore, mega-ships mean that more cargo is concentrated on a single ship, leading to lower service frequencies and lower supply chain resilience – all your eggs in one basket.
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Investment in Inland Transport Infrastructure
at Record Low The latest ITF Statistics Brief shows that the continued economic crisis has had an impact on transport infrastructure investment:- Investment in inland transport infrastructure, as a share of GDP, has declined from a peak in 2009 to a record low (0.8%) in the OECD while the volume of investment has fallen back to 1995 levels. - European countries have nearly halved since 2009 in real terms, accounting for 1.0% of GDP in 2013 (compared with 1.9% in 2009). - Western European and North American economies invest increasingly in rail while in Central and Eastern European countries the focus continues to be on roads. |